Lynx vs Mercury Prediction: Last Games, Injury Report, Player Stats, H2H & Best Picks – WNBA 12 May 2026

The Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury meet in an exciting early-season WNBA clash on Tuesday night, with both Western Conference teams trying to build momentum. Minnesota enters this matchup after a close loss against the Atlanta Dream, while Phoenix already has mixed results from its opening two games. The biggest storyline surrounding this contest is the absence of star forward Napheesa Collier for the Lynx, forcing Minnesota to depend heavily on young guards and perimeter scoring.

However, rookie sensation Olivia Miles looked outstanding in her debut and immediately showed why she was selected near the top of the draft. Phoenix, meanwhile, continues to adjust after roster changes during the offseason, but the combination of Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper still gives the Mercury one of the most dangerous veteran cores in the league. With both teams looking to establish their identity early in the season, this matchup could become a physical and defense-focused battle.

Match Information

Match	Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
Tournament	WNBA 2026
Date	12 May 2026
Time	10:00 PM EST
Venue	Mortgage Matchup Center
Broadcast	Arizona’s Family 3TV, Victory+

Team Records

Team	Record
Minnesota Lynx	0-1
Phoenix Mercury	1-1

Phoenix enters after splitting its opening two games.

Previous Match Results

Minnesota Lynx Recent Games

Date	Opponent	Result
May 10	Atlanta Dream	Loss 90-91
May 2	Toronto Tempo	Win 73-66
Apr 28	Nigeria	Win 88-79
Apr 26	Washington Mystics	Win 77-66

Minnesota nearly stole the opener despite missing key players.

Phoenix Mercury Recent Games

Date	Opponent	Result
May 11	Golden State Valkyries	Loss 79-95
May 10	Las Vegas Aces	Win 99-66
Apr 30	Japan	Win 86-60
Apr 26	Chicago Sky	Win 108-104

Phoenix showed elite offense against Las Vegas.

Head-to-Head Record

Category	Mercury	Lynx
Total Wins	18	51

Minnesota has historically dominated this matchup.

Last Five H2H Meetings

Date	Winner	Score
Sept 29, 2025	Mercury	86-81
Sept 27, 2025	Mercury	84-76
Sept 24, 2025	Mercury	89-83
Sept 22, 2025	Lynx	82-69
July 16, 2025	Lynx	79-66

Recent meetings have mostly been competitive.

Injury Report

Minnesota Lynx

Player	Status
Napheesa Collier	Out
Dorka Juhasz	Out

Phoenix Mercury

Player	Status
Sami Whitcomb	Out

Collier’s absence is a major blow for Minnesota.

Probable Starting Lineups

Minnesota Lynx

Position	Player
G	Olivia Miles
G	Courtney Williams
G	Kayla McBride
F	Nia Coffey
C	Jessica Shepard

Phoenix Mercury

Position	Player
G	Kahleah Copper
G	Sami Whitcomb Replacement
F	Alyssa Thomas
F	Natasha Mack
C	Brittney Griner Replacement Rotation

Phoenix has more veteran experience entering the game.

Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Player	Key Role
Olivia Miles	Playmaker and scorer
Kayla McBride	Three-point shooting
Courtney Williams	Ball handling
Nia Coffey	Rebounding support

Phoenix Mercury

Player	Key Role
Alyssa Thomas	All-around leader
Kahleah Copper	Primary scorer
Natasha Mack	Interior defense

The rookie-vs-veteran battle could define this game.

Important Player Stats

Player	Recent Performance
Olivia Miles	21 points, 8 assists in debut
Alyssa Thomas	Team leader in all-around impact
Kahleah Copper	Main scoring option
Nia Coffey	Expected bigger rebounding role

Miles already looks comfortable at WNBA level.

Team Comparison

Category	Lynx	Mercury
Offense	Guard-focused	Balanced
Defense	Solid perimeter	Physical inside
Experience	Younger lineup	Veteran core
Home Advantage	No	Yes
Momentum	Competitive loss	Mixed results

Phoenix has slight edge due to home court.

Also see: Dodgers vs Giants Prediction: Probable Pitchers, Injury Report, Player Stats, H2H & Best Picks – MLB 12 May 2026

Betting Odds

Market	Odds
Spread	Mercury -4
Total	170.5
Moneyline	Mercury Favorite

Game projected to stay relatively close.

Best Bets for Lynx vs Mercury

Market	Pick
Match Winner	Mercury
Spread	Mercury -4
Total Points	Under 170
Player Prop	Olivia Miles Over Assists
Rebounds Prop	Nia Coffey Over Rebounds

Miles should continue handling major playmaking duties.

Match Prediction

Minnesota proved in its opening game that it can still compete without Napheesa Collier, but the pressure on the backcourt is massive. Olivia Miles looked exceptional in her debut and should again have the ball in her hands for most of the game. However, Phoenix appears more balanced overall, especially with experienced stars like Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper leading the team. The Mercury also return home after a difficult back-to-back situation and should look fresher physically. Expect Minnesota to fight hard defensively, but Phoenix’s veteran presence and stronger inside game may ultimately become the difference late in the fourth quarter.

Predicted Score

Team	Score
Phoenix Mercury	85
Minnesota Lynx	79

Final Verdict

The Lynx have enough guard talent to remain competitive, but missing Napheesa Collier changes the entire structure of the team. Phoenix Mercury should control the tempo better at home and take advantage of their experience in key moments. Olivia Miles is still expected to produce another strong all-around game, especially as a passer, but the Mercury remain the stronger overall side entering this matchup.