Pakistan are still alive in the race for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 semi-finals, but their path is extremely difficult. After England defeated New Zealand in the Super 8 stage, Salman Ali Agha’s side have been given a final opportunity to qualify.
However, Pakistan cannot depend on a simple win. They must defeat Sri Lanka by a massive margin or complete the chase very quickly to overtake New Zealand on Net Run Rate (NRR) and secure the second semi-final spot from Super 8 Group 2.
Super 8 Group 2 Points Situation
| Team | Matches | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|
| England (Q) | 3 | 6 | +1.096 |
| New Zealand | 3 | 3 | +1.390 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 1 | -0.461 |
| Sri Lanka (E) | 2 | 0 | -2.800 |
Pakistan have one match left, while New Zealand have completed their campaign. If Pakistan win and improve their NRR above New Zealand’s +1.390, they will qualify for the semi-finals.
What Pakistan Need to Qualify
Pakistan’s qualification depends on two key conditions:
- Win against Sri Lanka
- Improve Net Run Rate above New Zealand
If Pakistan win normally but fail to cross New Zealand’s NRR, the Blackcaps will advance to the semi-finals.
Scenario 1: If Pakistan Bat First
Pakistan must win by a big margin.
Minimum Winning Margin Required
| Pakistan Total | Required Win Margin |
|---|---|
| 103–150 | 63+ runs |
| 151–198 | 64+ runs |
| 199–246 | 65+ runs |
This means Pakistan need a dominant performance with both bat and ball.
Scenario 2: If Pakistan Bowl First (Chasing Case)
If Pakistan chase, they must finish the target very quickly.
Chase Time Requirement
| Target Range | Must Chase Within |
|---|---|
| 115–123 | 12.4 overs |
| 124–132 | 12.5 overs |
| 133–142 | 12.6 overs |
| 143–152 | 13.1 overs |
| 153–163 | 13.2 overs |
| 164–175 | 13.3 overs |
In simple terms, Pakistan must chase the target in around 13 overs or less.
Why the Task Is Difficult
- Pakistan’s current NRR is -0.461, far behind New Zealand’s +1.390
- The match is expected to be played on a slow surface, where very high totals are difficult
- Sri Lanka, though eliminated, will look to finish strongly
- Pakistan must deliver a near-perfect performance in all departments
What Happens If the Match Is Washed Out?
There is no reserve day for Super 8 matches.
If rain abandons the game:
- Both teams get 1 point
- Pakistan finish with 2 points
- New Zealand (3 points) qualify for the semi-finals
Possible Semi-Final Opponent
If Pakistan qualify, they are likely to face South Africa in the semi-final.
If they fail, New Zealand will take the second spot from Group 2.
Pakistan’s Current Situation in One Line
Pakistan’s fate is in their own hands — but only a big win or a very fast chase can take them into the last four.
Key Factors to Watch
Batting
Pakistan need aggressive intent from the start, especially in the powerplay.
Bowling
Restricting Sri Lanka below 120–130 will give Pakistan a realistic chance of a quick chase.
Net Run Rate Pressure
Every over and every run will matter. Even a comfortable win may not be enough.
Pakistan have survived in the tournament thanks to England’s win, but their semi-final hopes now depend on delivering a dominant performance under pressure. One big night could take them into the last four — anything less will end their campaign.
FAQs
How can Pakistan qualify for the semi-finals?
Pakistan must beat Sri Lanka and improve their Net Run Rate above New Zealand.
What is the minimum winning margin needed?
If batting first, Pakistan need to win by 63–65 runs, depending on the total.
How fast must Pakistan chase the target?
They must complete the chase in around 13 overs or less.
What happens if the match is washed out?
New Zealand will qualify, and Pakistan will be eliminated.
