Borussia Dortmund travel to Bergamo with a strong advantage as they face Atalanta in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League knockout play-off. After winning the first leg 2-0 in Germany, the German side are close to securing a place in the Round of 16.
Atalanta, however, will rely on their strong home form and attacking intent to try and produce a comeback in front of their fans. Here is a complete preview, prediction, team news, probable lineups, and key insights for this high-stakes European clash.
Match Details
| Match | Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League Knockout Play-off |
| Date | February 25, 2026 |
| Venue | New Balance Arena, Bergamo |
| Kick-off | 18:45 CET / 17:45 GMT |
| First Leg Result | Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta |
Current Situation: What Each Team Needs
Borussia Dortmund hold a comfortable two-goal advantage. The German side only need to avoid a heavy defeat to progress.
Atalanta face a tough challenge:
- Need at least two goals to force extra time
- Must attack from the start
- Have struggled to score recently in the Champions League
Despite this, Atalanta’s home form has been impressive, winning four of their last five matches in Bergamo.
Recent Form and Momentum
Atalanta
- Won 4 of last 5 home games
- Beat Napoli 2-1 in their latest league match
- Struggling for goals in Europe
- Missing key attacking players
Borussia Dortmund
- Unbeaten in Bundesliga for a long stretch
- Unbeaten in last five matches across competitions
- Kept two clean sheets in last three games
- Strong attacking output in the Champions League
Dortmund have also progressed from every European tie where they won the first leg by two goals, which gives them a big psychological advantage.
Team News
Atalanta Injury Concerns
- Charles De Ketelaere – unavailable
- Giacomo Raspadori – unavailable
These absences reduce their attacking depth and put more pressure on Gianluca Scamacca.
Borussia Dortmund Injury Updates
- Emre Can – out (adductor issue)
- Niklas Süle – not fully fit
- Filippo Mane – injured
- Nico Schlotterbeck – could return after training
Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-2-1)
Carnesecchi
Scalvini – Hien – Kolasinac
Zappacosta – De Roon – Ederson – Bernasconi
Samardzic – Zalewski
Scamacca
Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1)
Kobel
Anton – Schlotterbeck – Bensebaini
Ryerson – Nmecha – Bellingham – Svensson
Brandt – Beier
Guirassy
Key Players to Watch
Gianluca Scamacca (Atalanta)
- Main attacking threat
- Expected to lead the comeback attempt
Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund)
- Leading scorer in the Champions League for the club
- Directly involved in both goals in the first leg
- 6 goals in last 5 matches across competitions
As Atalanta push forward, Guirassy could be dangerous on the counter.
Tactical Battle
Atalanta’s Approach
- High pressing and attacking football
- Full-backs pushing forward
- Need early goal to change momentum
Dortmund’s Strategy
- Compact defensive shape
- Use counter-attacks
- Take advantage of Atalanta’s defensive gaps
The match is expected to be open, especially if Atalanta score early.
Statistical Insights
| Category | Atalanta | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League Goals | 10 in 9 matches | 21 in competition |
| Avg Goals per Game | 1.1 | 2.3+ |
| Clean Sheets (UCL) | Limited | 2 recently |
| Home Scoring Record (2026) | Scored in all home games | Scored in 9 of last 10 away games |
Both teams’ recent trends suggest goals at both ends.
Betting Odds & Match Expectations
- Atalanta slight home favorite
- Goal line around 2.5
- Strong support for Both Teams to Score
- High probability of an open match due to Atalanta’s attacking need
Projected winning chances:
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atalanta Win | ~43% |
| Dortmund Win | ~33% |
| Draw | ~23% |
Match Prediction
Atalanta will likely dominate possession and create chances at home. However, their defensive risks and Dortmund’s attacking quality make a full comeback difficult.
Predicted Score:
Atalanta 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
This result would be enough for Dortmund to advance comfortably to the Round of 16.
Qualification Prediction
Borussia Dortmund are strong favorites to progress due to:
- Two-goal aggregate lead
- Better attacking efficiency
- Strong European record in similar situations
Atalanta’s best chance is an early goal, but the absence of key attackers makes the task very difficult.
Atalanta’s home strength should help them compete strongly, but Dortmund’s two-goal cushion and counter-attacking quality give them the edge. Expect an entertaining game with goals, but Borussia Dortmund are likely to control the tie and move into the next round.
