The Australian Open 2026 reaches a thrilling point as home favorite Alex de Minaur faces Kazakhstan’s shot-maker Alexander Bublik in the Round of 16. The match is set for Jan 25, 2026, on Rod Laver Arena, with Melbourne fans expecting a high-energy battle between speed and power.
De Minaur arrives as Australia’s top hope, carrying crowd support and strong hard-court form. Bublik, now firmly inside the top 10, brings unpredictability, big serving, and fearless shot selection ingredients for a classic second-week showdown.
Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik: Match Overview
| Match | Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik |
|---|---|
| Round | Round of 16 |
| Date | January 25, 2026 |
| Venue | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne |
| Surface | Hard Court |
| Rankings | De Minaur (6), Bublik (10) |
| Seeds | De Minaur (6), Bublik (10) |
Alex de Minaur: Current Form
De Minaur has looked sharp and composed throughout the tournament. His greatest strengths—elite speed, relentless defense, and an improving first serve—have helped him control tempo even against heavy hitters. In the third round, he delivered a straight-sets win over a dangerous opponent, showing maturity in closing tight moments.
Melbourne conditions suit De Minaur’s counterpunching style. He thrives on extended rallies, returns serve well, and feeds off the home crowd’s energy. With a strong recent hard-court record, he enters this match confident and physically prepared for a long contest if needed.
Alexander Bublik: Current Form
Bublik has been one of the stories of early 2026. After lifting a title earlier in the season, he arrived in Melbourne unbeaten on hard courts this year. His third-round victory was built on clutch serving and fearless play in tie-breaks—hallmarks of his game.
Known for mixing power with creativity, Bublik can change rhythm at will. Drop shots, underarm serves, and bold second-serve choices keep opponents guessing. When his serve clicks, he becomes extremely difficult to break.
Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik: Head-to-Head Record
The rivalry has been close and entertaining.
| Category | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall H2H | De Minaur leads 3–2 |
| Hard Court | De Minaur leads |
| Recent Meetings (2025) | Bublik won both |
Bublik took both meetings in 2025, but De Minaur has generally fared better on hard courts over the long run especially in Melbourne.
Also see: What is a Walkover in Tennis?
Key Factors to Watch
- De Minaur’s return game vs Bublik’s big serve
- Tie-break performance under pressure
- Rally length and physical endurance
- Crowd influence on momentum swings
If De Minaur consistently neutralizes the first serve, he can grind Bublik down. If Bublik dominates service games, the match could swing quickly.
Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik: Prediction
This matchup has all the signs of a long, dramatic battle. Bublik’s serve and creativity will win him stretches, but De Minaur’s consistency and home support should make the difference late.
Prediction:
Alex de Minaur to win in five sets, with at least one tie-break deciding the outcome.
Speed versus power. Discipline versus chaos. This is a classic Australian Open matchup. De Minaur carries the nation’s hopes, while Bublik brings the ability to flip a match in minutes. Expect momentum swings, loud crowds, and high-quality tennis under the lights at Rod Laver Arena.
